基于改进的灰色―马尔可夫链模型预测管道剩余使用寿命

本资料包含pdf文件1个，下载需要1积分

A prediction model of corrosion states is developed for buried steel pipelines in order to collect the current corrosion states opportunely and evaluate the operating conditions scientifically. A method of predicting corrosion states for the wall of pipe is described by applying the evaluation SY/T 6151--2009 ＂Method of Steel Pipelines Corrosion Damage＂ and the theory of modified Gray - Markov chain. Taking the gathering pipeline of Shuyilian - Shuwulian in Liaohe Oilfield for example, the corrosion states for the wall of pipe are predicted. The results show that the calculated value by modified Gray - Markov chain model has a good agreement with the detected value. The model will make an accurate prediction of the pipeline in a small number of test data.对于已经运行多年的油田管道,为了及时掌握管道腐蚀现状以及对管道运行状况进行科学评价,建立了一种埋地钢制管道腐蚀状况预测模型。结合规范SY/T6151―2009《钢质管道管体腐蚀损伤评价方法》和改进的灰色―马尔可夫链模型,阐述应用改进的灰色―马尔可夫链模型预测管壁腐蚀状况的具体方法。以辽河油田曙一联至曙五联集输管道为例,计算得到该管壁腐蚀状态分布的预测值。结果显示,利用改进的灰色―马尔可夫链模型得到的计算值与实际检测值对应的腐蚀状态一致,在检测数据少的情况下,可对管道剩余使用寿命做出准确预测。