基于带漂移布朗运动的滚轮滑轨可靠性预测方法研究

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针对滚轮滑轨的高耐磨性、少失效信息的特点,运用性能退化可靠性理论和随机过程方法,对滚轮滑轨的可靠性进行了研究。通过分析滚轮滑轨的磨损失效过程,建立了基于带漂移布朗运动的滚轮滑轨可靠度模型,并利用布朗运动特性研究了基于当前状态的寿命预测方法,从而实现滚轮滑轨可靠性的实时预测。实例证明了该方法的合理性和有效性。研究结果为滚轮滑轨的维修决策提供了理论方法。 Because the roller--slide has the characteristic of high wearability and few failure data, the reliability of the roller--slide was researched using the performance degradation theory and sto- chastic process methods. On the basis of analyzing the wearing process of the roller--slide, a reliability model based on Brownian motion with drift was built, and then the residual life prediction method based on current wear quantity was developed with the characteristics of Brownian motion. Finally,an example was given to show that the proposed method is validity and the prediction accuracy is accepta- ble. Also, the method provides a foundation for maintenance decision.